The rapid rise of real estate prices in recent years has led to fears of a housing price bubble. But, to determine whether there has been a bubble–and whether the bubble is bursting–one needs to know what home prices “should” be. The authors estimate a simple model of home prices and...

The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the...

This paper presents 12 facts about the mortgage market. The authors argue that the facts refute the popular story that the crisis resulted from financial industry insiders deceiving uninformed mortgage borrowers and investors. Instead, they argue that borrowers and investors made decisions that...

We describe a rational expectations model in which speculative bubbles in house prices can emerge. Within this model both speculators and their lenders use interest-only mortgages (IOs) rather than traditional mortgages when there is a bubble. Absent a bubble, there is no tendency for IOs to be...

When the housing boom of the past decade turned into a bust, falling house prices played a primary role in driving up delinquency and foreclosure rates. As housing values fell, distressed borrowers lost equity, which hindered their ability to escape delinquency by prepaying their mortgages by...

Discussion by Eric S. Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, NY, February 29, 2008

For the past several years, the news media have carried countless stories about soaring defaults among subprime mortgage borrowers. Although concern over this segment of the mortgage market is certainly justified, subprime mortgages only account for about onequarter of the total outstanding...

The housing bust leaves in its wake elevated foreclosure levels in Texas and the U.S. Like other consequences of the bust, including declines in construction and existing-home sales, foreclosures have been less severe in Texas. While the nation's foreclosure rate has grown nearly sixfold over...