Approximately 4800 municipal bond issuers defaulted on interest or principal payments during the Great Depression. Although municipal bond defaults have been quite rare over the last 70 years, some commentators have suggested that another large wave of municipal bond defaults will occur in the...

In response to a request from the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission, we propose a model to estimate default probabilities for bonds issued by cities. The model can be used with financial data available in Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports that cities are required to...

My research team collected cost of issuance information from Official Statements representing over 800 bond issuances since 2012. We found that costs of issuance including underwriter discounts averaged 1.02% of bond principal. Further, we found substantial variation in the sample, with six...

After achieving peak revenue of $1.5 billion in 2007, the municipal bond insurance business collapsed in the wake of the financial crisis. More recently, the industry has started to recover, with three market participants seeking to write new policies. Our study asks whether municipal bond...

I estimate that the contemporary system of municipal bond ratings costs issuers over $2 billion annually. Fees paid to rating agencies directly account for about $500 million of this total. The greater burden on issuers arises from the relatively harsh ratings that agencies assign municipal...