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of the NAIRU, the Non Accelerating Rate of Unemployment, provide confidence bands, and formally test the constancy … hypothesis on the NAIRU. We also study the robustness of this results to the specification of the Phillips Curve. We find more … reliable estimates of the NAIRU than previous estimates of the output gap, and find evidence in favor of a non constant NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005274509
Prediction intervals in State Space models can be obtained by assuming Gaussian innovations and using the prediction equations of the Kalman filter, where the true parameters are substituted by consistent estimates. This approach has two limitations. First, it does not incorporate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543184
) and real-wage scope (price curve), which jointly determine the NAIRU. The heuristics of the model states that unless the … rate of unemployment approaches the NAIRU from any given initial value, inflation will be increasing or decreasing over …-interpreted as attractor relationships. Findings – The authors show that NAIRU unemployment dynamics are sufficient but not necessary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014864233
NAIRU. The labour macro literature tries to explain unemployment dynamics and determine the real economic factors that drive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281022
This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281027
, phenomena, and history. Given the key role that the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) has in the …, identifying methodological strengths and the weaknesses in the body of the macroeconomic research about the concept of NAIRU. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282611
Several features of the U.S. natural rate of unemployment are reconsidered through specification and testing of econometric models. Traditionally, the choice has been between a wage Phillips curve model, PCM, or an equilibrium correction wage curve model, WECM. The models proposed in this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284368
This note gives a brief survey of main theoretical and empirical issues with respect to the NAIRU concept. According to … modern labour market literature NAIRU is defined as the rate of unemployment at which inflation stabilizes in the absence of … any wage-price surprises. Conventional thinking about the equilibrium unemployment rate assumes that in the long run NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291066
The path of output prior to the financial and economic crisis turned out to be not sustainable and lower than previously estimated in some European crisis countries. Specifically, the output gaps have been underestimated (and inversely potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420397
Low-pay work has been increasing in prevalence in many industrial countries. Following standard wage/price-setting theory, this increase should reduce structural unemployment, because labour market flexibility increases and labour costs decrease. However, a Keynesian perspective challenges this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420854