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of the NAIRU, the Non Accelerating Rate of Unemployment, provide confidence bands, and formally test the constancy … hypothesis on the NAIRU. We also study the robustness of this results to the specification of the Phillips Curve. We find more … reliable estimates of the NAIRU than previous estimates of the output gap, and find evidence in favor of a non constant NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005274509
Prediction intervals in State Space models can be obtained by assuming Gaussian innovations and using the prediction equations of the Kalman filter, where the true parameters are substituted by consistent estimates. This approach has two limitations. First, it does not incorporate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543184
This paper argues that the production constraints in the basic NAIRU model should be distinguished by type: capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295309
The paper analyses the recent supply side developments in France, Germany, and Italy by employing a non-parametric approach to estimate potential GDP. The analysis reveals marked heterogeneity among the three countries with regard to the contribution made by labour input. Where similarities can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295797
" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical …, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt … is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297287
This paper provides new estimates of a time?varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by … inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one … inflation target put forward by the European Central Bank. The estimates presented in this paper suggest that the NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297970
We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue Länder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous Länder, supply shocks and changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323716
This paper investigates two different procedures for the measurement of the NAIRU; one based on structural modeling … (the NAIRU) and numbers.The paper argues that shifts of the Phillips-curve are not a problem for the structural approach to … measurement of the NAIRU, as the NAIRU itself is a time-varying concept. It is however, the impossibility to identify the exact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325543
We estimate the quantitative importance of labour market institutions for equilibrium unemployment in OECD. The empirical equation for unemployment is based on the solution of a dynamic macroeconomic model where wages and prices are jointly determined with unemployment. Compared to existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330226
We focus on the equilibrium unemployment rate as a parameter implied by a dynamic aggregate model of wage- and price setting. The equilibrium unemployment rate depends on institutional labour market institutions through mark-up coefficients. Compared to existing studies, the resulting final...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330277