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of the NAIRU, the Non Accelerating Rate of Unemployment, provide confidence bands, and formally test the constancy … hypothesis on the NAIRU. We also study the robustness of this results to the specification of the Phillips Curve. We find more … reliable estimates of the NAIRU than previous estimates of the output gap, and find evidence in favor of a non constant NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005274509
Prediction intervals in State Space models can be obtained by assuming Gaussian innovations and using the prediction equations of the Kalman filter, where the true parameters are substituted by consistent estimates. This approach has two limitations. First, it does not incorporate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543184
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469353
effect in the equation at three quarters lag is positive. The NAIRU rate in the unemployment inflation trade off model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010310445
This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010314559
The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional aspects of full employment regarding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014564034
According to the mainstream view, labour market institutions (LMI) are the key determinants of unemployment in the medium run. The actual empirical explanatory power of measures for labour market institutions, however, has been called into question recently (Baker et al 2005, Baccaro and Rei...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265039
the determination of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) over the last four decades. The authors … of imports, and aggregate capacity utilization were determinants of the NAIRU during the period. The same evidence also … shows that technical progress and changes in long-term unemployment did not affect the NAIRU. We believe this evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266535
Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271163
NAIRU. The labour macro literature tries to explain unemployment dynamics and determine the real economic factors that drive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276416