In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...

In 2007, Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (HHR) demonstrated that export specialization patterns have important implications for economic growth. The authors developed an indicator of income level linked to the country’s exports they called EXPY and showed that higher values of the indicator lead to...