This paper examines the interplay between one hemisphere of the financial economy that contributes to financing real-economic output, while the other deals self-referentially with capital management and financial asset management, in short, GDP finance and non-GDP finance. Since around 1980,...

In this Global VEC study, we assess major economies' global influence through forecast error variance decomposition of real output growth. We find that the US has the greatest impact on an average foreign economy (9.8%), primarily via equity markets and interest rates. It is followed by the Euro...

We provide evidence on the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending. Using detailed data on banks' lending activities coupled with term premium shocks identified using high-frequency event study or instrumental variables, we show that a steeper yield curve...

This article examines the relationship between financial development and income inequality for selected EU countries by using fixed effects panel data estimator over the years 2004-2015. Our empirical results show that financial development ultimately causes an increase in income inequality...

This paper examines the ability of bond and stock markets to predict subsequent GDP growth over a range of horizons for twelve international countries. The results, using linear, probit, time- and regime-varying in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting, confirm the view that both...

We examine the dynamic impact of liquidity shocks resonating in stock and housing markets on real GDP growth. We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility to US data from 1970 to 2014. GDP becomes highly sensitive to house market liquidity shocks as disruptions...

We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the thickening of the left tail of the future growth...

Economic research has considered Private Debt a determinant of GDP growth for years. By keeping this perspective, the objective of this work is to understand how much of the GDP response to a monetary shock is due to the variation of private debt. This is the marginal contribution of private...

This study examines whether stock market illiquidity forecasts real UK GDP growth using data over the period 1989q1-2012q2. Apart from standard linear model specifications, we also utilize non-linear models, which allow for regime switching behavior in terms of a liquid versus an illiquid market...