What is the link between stock returns and news about economic growth? Using consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters, I find that the univariate association between stock returns and GDP growth forecast surprises is indistinguishable from zero. While...

We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Professional macro forecasters, however, do not fully incorporate the predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings...