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professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the … estimates of information frictions in some cases. For the overwhelming majority of consistent forecasts, annual GDP predictions … almost immediately reflect the monthly GDP releases. These findings suggest that most forecasters make at least minor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012816462
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we … models that allow us to nowcast quarterly GDP growth using monthly or daily data without temporal aggregation in a … parsimonious way. We find that financial market data nowcasts Finnish GDP growth relatively well: nowcasting performance is similar …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013286502
well as cheques that clear through the banking system, as potential indicators of current GDP growth. These variables … macroeconomic forecasting. Controlling for the release dates of each of a set of indicators, we generated nowcasts of GDP growth for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664042
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA … model; 2) AR model estimated by the Kalman filter; 3) model that explains Macedonian GDP as a function of the foreign demand …; 4) small structural model that links GDP components to a small set of explanatory variables; 5) static factor model that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623268
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we … models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth using monthly or daily data without temporal aggregation in a … parsimonious way. Our results show that financial market data nowcasts Finnish GDP growth relatively well. When it comes to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214415
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285550
The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We … utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to …, labour, expectations, transport, financial data. We address the problem of Nowcasting of the growth rate of Slovak real GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015418703
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014316407
In this paper, we estimate deseasonalized monthly series for Swiss gross domestic product at constant prices of 1990 for the period 1980-1998. They are consistent with the quarterly figures estimated by the Federal Office for Economic Development and Labour and are obtained by including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430006
This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European … monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506654