For numerous applications it is of interest to provide full probabilistic forecasts, which are able to assign probabilities to each predicted outcome. Therefore, attention is shifting constantly from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models capturing location, scale, shape...

Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in the past two decades. With the constant rise of computational power even very complex models can be estimated on virtually any modern computer. Moreover, interest has shifted from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models...

Regressionsanalysen sind von Konfundierungseffekten betroffen, wenn Drittvariablen gleichzeitig mit Zielgrößen und Kovariablen korreliert sind. Klassische Regressionsmodelle sind in diesen Fällen nicht in der Lage, Kovariablen- und Drittvariableneffekte voneinander zu unterscheiden. Die...

P(enalized)-splines and fractional polynomials (FPs) have emerged as powerful smoothing techniques with increasing popularity in several fields of applied research. Both approaches provide considerable flexibility, but only limited comparative evaluations of the performance and properties of the...

The multinomial logit model (MNL) is one of the most frequently used statistical models in marketing applications. It allows to relate an unordered categorical response variable, for example representing the choice of a brand, to a vector of covariates such as the price of the brand or variables...

In this paper we construct simultaneous confidence bands for a smooth curve using penalized spline estimators. We consider three types of estimation methods: (i) as a standard (fixed effect) nonparametric model, (ii) using the mixed model framework with the spline coefficients as random effects...

The dissertation consists of three essays. The main focus is set on semiparametric regression modeling, which embodies the strength of parametric and nonparametric regression models in terms of flexibility, dimensionality and interpretability. The first essay is “Some Recent Advances in...