This paper examines whether the preliminary releases of GDP incorporate efficiently all available information or whether the preliminary estimates contain information that can be useful in predicting forthcoming GDP data revisions. Forecast rationality tests are applied to distinguish between...

In the literature the effects of weather on electricity sales are well-documented. However, studies that have investigated the impact of weather on electricity prices are still scarce (e.g. Knittel and Roberts, 2005), partly because the wholesale power markets have only recently been...

We summarize the general combination approach by Billio et al. [2010]. In the combination model the weights follow logistic autoregressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting performances of the predictive densities. For illustrative...

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that...

In this paper we analyse whether the use of debit card payments data improves the accuracy of one-quarter ahead forecasts and nowcasts (current-quarter forecasts) of Dutch private household consumption. Since debit card payments data are timely available, they may be a valuable indicator of...

This paper examines the accuracy of short run forecasts of Dutch GDP growth by several linear statistical models and private sector analysts. We focus on the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the dot-com recession of 2001-2002. The dynamic factor model turns out to be the best model. Its...

We summarize the general combination approach by Billio et al. [2010]. In the combination model the weights follow logistic auto-regressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting performances of the predictive densities. For illustrative...

In this study, we build two forecasting models to predict inflation Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Netherlands and for the euro area. The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the components of the HICP and the aggregated HICP-index itself. Both...