Prediction in time series models with a trend requires reliable estimation of the trend function at the right end of the observed series. Local polynomial smoothing is a suitable tool because boundary corrections are included implicitly. However, outliers may lead to unreliable estimates, if...

We investigate the behavior of nonparametric kernel M-estimators in the presence of long-memory errors. The optimal bandwidth and a central limit theorem are obtained. It turns out that in the Gaussian case all kernel M-estimators have the same limiting normal distribution. The motivation behind...

We consider dependence structures in multivariate time series that are characterized by deterministic trends. Results from spectral analysis for stationary processes are extended to deterministic trend functions. A regression cross covariance and spectrum are defined. Estimation of these...

Estimation of a nonparametric regression spectrum based on the periodogram is considered. Neither trend estimation nor smoothing of the periodogram are required. Alternatively, for cases where spectral estimation of phase shifts fails and the shift does not depend on frequency, a time domain...

Recent results on so-called SEMIFAR models introduced by Beran (1997) are discussed. The nonparametric deterministic trend is estimated by a kernel method. The differencing and fractional differencing parameters as well as the autoregressive coefficients are estimated by an approximate maximum...

In this paper data-driven algorithms for fitting SEMIFAR models (Beran, 1999) are proposed. The algorithms combine the data-driven estimation of the nonparametric trend and maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters. For selecting the bandwidth, the proposal of Beran and Feng (1999) based...

Time series in many areas of application often display local or global trends. Typical models that provide statistical explanations of such trends are, for example, polynomial regression, smooth bounded trends that are estimated nonparametrically, and difference-stationary processes such as, for...