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growth of the four largest regions of Spain, and illustrate the real-time nowcasting performance of the proposed framework …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012532149
En este trabajo se construye, en primer lugar, un indicador a escala autonómica que trata de medir el volumen de medidas desplegadas en cada momento del tiempo para contener la pandemia. Para ello se analiza, mediante técnicas de análisis textual, la información contenida en las noticias de...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012525953
En este artículo se introducen nuevos esquemas de ponderación para promediar de modelos econométricos cuando se está interesado en combinar predicciones de variables discretas provenientes de modelos con cambios de régimen markoviano. En una aplicación empírica, se pronostican los puntos...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530567
combinaciones más amplias de modelos ; The focus of this paper is on nowcasting and forecasting quarterly private consumption. The … qualitative signals in the nowcasting horizon ; iii) Google-based and uncertainty indicators add value when combined with … traditional indicators, most notably at estimation horizons beyond the nowcasting one, what would be consistent with capturing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012532188
This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615361
We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large-scale models and the implicit loss of information of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010994591
Survey and to compare it with the mechanical forecasts based on state-of-the-art nowcasting techniques. Results indicate that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075127
With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010559456
This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277729
This paper evaluates five Nowcasting models that forecast Mexico's quarterly GDP: a Dynamic Factor Model (MFD), two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057066