The paper examines the crude oil price effects on the political environment of the top four crude oil-consuming countries. The study uses data from 2002 to 2017 to showcase the effect of crude oil price on political environment of crude oil-consuming countries. The study takes Voice and...

How do changes in aggregate volatility alter the impulse response of output to monetary policy? To analyze this question, I study whether individual prices in Producer Price Index micro data are more likely to move in the same direction when aggregate volatility is high, which would increase...

Oil is a crucial economic input and Pakistan's growth, production levels, and price levels are affected significantly by oil price volatility. This paper captures the impact of oil price shocks on Pakistan's economy by considering variables such as gross domestic product, the wholesale price...

This paper proposes a structural explanation for a news shock. My hypothesis is that a surprise, research and development sector-specific productivity shock may be identified and labeled as news by prominent empirical research in the literature. To examine this hypothesis, I construct a simple...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

Although the link between oil prices and dollar exchange rates has been frequently analyzed, a clear distinction between prices and nominal exchange rate dynamics and a clarification of the issue of causality has not been provided. In addition, previous studies have mostly neglected...

This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly disaggregated consumer prices using cointegrated ARDL approach of [Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration...

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...

In this paper, we examine if COVID-19 has impacted the relationship between oil prices and stock returns predictions using daily Japanese stock market data from 01/04/2020 to 03/17/2021. We make a novel contribution to the literature by testing whether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed this...