This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....

In this study, the analysis was that the capacity of creating inflation depends on oil prices as the one of energy types that is a major input of aggregate output which becomes a source of economic growth with increasing in costs. The aggregate output is also a function of energy that is the one...

This paper analyzed the non-linear ARDL approach and the non-linear Granger co-integration method. The gold price level showed positive asymmetric response to changes in the oil price in the short and long run. This study used the non-linear ARDL method to analyze the relationship between oil...

This paper provides evidence on the influence of oil price uncertainty on the real economic activity in two Middle Eastern countries, namely, Jordan and Turkey that are heavily dependent on oil imports. To measure the effect of uncertainty, the paper combines a bivariate structural VAR with a...

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of OPEC's oil price level versus oil supply strategy on the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Our motivation comes from a fundamental dilemma facing OPEC nations. Its members need to choose between the traditional OPEC cartel...

The paper continues a series of publications on the natural science foundations of the global economy. Physical macroeconomics treats the global economy as a living system, formed during biological and socio-economic evolution.In this Part VI of physical macroeconomics, qualitatively...

Oil and gold are the two strategic commodities which have received much attention. The prices of oil and gold, which are the world’s most traded commodities, are very volatile. This paper aims to analyze the impact of oil shock and gold price on the business cycles of some developed countries:...

Oil price shocks impact the global economy, but the effects are not alike across the countries. While higher oil prices are beneficial to oil-exporting countries, they are harmful to economic performance of oil-importing countries. The opposite is also true for the lower oil prices. Nonetheless,...

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing...

This paper analyses mutual causalities between crude oil price and euro / US dollar exchange rate. Instead of focusing on long-run macroeconomic linkages like the bulk of the relevant literature takes a financial markets perspective using daily data. The fast-running simultaneousimpacts are...