In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We develop a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends...

In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model...

We construct a model of strategic behavior in sequential markets which exhibits a persistent forward price premium. On the spot market, producers wield market power while purchasers are price takers. Producers with forward commitments have less incentive to raise prices on the spot market....

In the last twenty years a large number of competitive ethanol firms have established operations in the US. Ethanol, produced from corn, is blended with pure gasoline to produce fuel. Producers hold an option to turn off unprofitable plants. Blenders choose to substitute ethanol for gasoline at...

Lin and Chang (2009, 2010) establish a VIX futures and option pricing theory when modeling S&P 500 index by using a stochastic volatility process with asset return and volatility jumps. In this note, we prove that Lin and Chang's formula is not an exact solution of their pricing equation. More...

We estimate the term structure of the price of variance risk (PVR), which helps distinguish between competing asset-pricing theories. First, we measure the PVR as proportional to the Sharpe ratio of short-term holding returns of delta-neutral index straddles; second, we estimate the PVR in a...