We exploit information in option prices in order to study whether the ex post responsiveness of tock prices to earnings information is reflected from an ex ante, firm- and quarter-specific perspective. Specifically, we develop a measure of anticipated information content (AIC) that isolates the...

Exotic, bespoke and long-dated options require careful model selection, calibration and pricing. Local Volatility models struggle to fit the smile and skew observed in financial markets and smile tends to flatten for long-dated maturities. Stochastic Volatility (SV) models such as the Heston...

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for models that can identify counterparty risk exposures and shock transmission processes at the systemic level. We use the euro area financial accounts (flow of funds) data to construct a sector-level network of bilateral balance sheet exposures and...

We provide a new method to derive the state price density per unit probability based on option prices and GARCH model. We derive the risk neutral distribution using the result in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and the historical density adapting the GARCH model of Barone-Adesi, Engle, and...

Supported by empirical examples, this paper provides a theoretical analysis on the impacts of using a suboptimal information set for the estimation of the empirical pricing kernel and, more in general, for the validity of the fundamental theorems of asset pricing. While inferring the...

In the paper we present the application of risk neutral measure estimation in the analysis of the index WIG20 from Polish stock market. The risk neutral measure is calculated from the process of the options on that index. We assume that risk neutral measure is the mixture of lognormal...

This paper presents a simple framework for the analysis, valuation and simulation of several real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information. Information costs can be viewed as sunk costs in the spirit of Merton's (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete...

This paper presents direct evidence that option price quotes do not contain any information about future stock prices beyond what is already reflected in current stock prices. We use trade and quote data for 39 liquid U.S. stocks and ETFs and options on them, and focus on events when the two...

This paper provides an empirical study on the predictability of implied volatility using dataset collected from the London over-the-counter currency option market. The present work is motivated by the lack of empirical studies that address implied volatility characteristics across various...

This study examines both restricted and unrestricted Black-Sholes models, according to Longstaff (1995). Using the Taiwan index options for each day from January 2005 to December 2008, the unrestricted model simultaneously solves the implied index value and implied volatility whereas the...