We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use transaction volume probability to describe price...

The return dynamics of Argentina's main stock index, the SP Mer.Val., show a high level of volatility, signaling a higher degree of downside risk. To hedge against that specific risk, investors could buy put options. However, the Argentinean capital markets lacks variety of hedging contracts....

Conventional financial theory considers ex-ante that risk, generally measured by the volatility, has to be appropriately rewarded by expected returns. In modern financial markets, there are countless quantitative and systematic strategies which may test and eventually lead to excess returns when...

When analyzing options returns, most papers tend to focus on the expected and realized return from strategies where the investors are long on those financial instruments. We conduct a test searching for excess returns on passive options investment strategies resorting to a four factor model,...

Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs,...

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...

While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, the theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. We provide an explanation for this "default anomaly", by calculating monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample...

Robert C. Merton is the School of Management Distinguished Professor of Finance at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the John and Natty McArthur University Professor Emeritus at Harvard University. Merton received the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1997 for a new...

This paper analyzes how individuals value the two main payout options of retirement wealth accrued in a pension plan: a lifelong income stream offered via an annuity or as a lumpsum. A better knowledge of the drivers behind the financial valuation of pension options contributes to the...