We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...

We propose a new predictor of real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA exploits the forward-looking information in option prices. It increases as risk averse investors enter the market,...

We propose a new predictor of U.S. real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA is forward-looking and hence, it is expected to be related to future economic conditions. We document that U.S....

We propose a new predictor of U.S. real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA is forward-looking and hence, it is expected to be related to future economic conditions. We document that U.S....

Using prices of both S&P 500 options and recently introduced VIX options, we study asset pricing implications of volatility risk. While pointing out the joint pricing kernel is not identified nonparametrically, we propose model-free estimates of marginal pricing kernels of the market return and...

We investigate the effects of return jumps on option bid-ask spreads measured in implied volatility. To explain bid-ask spread quoting behavior, we construct a general model with market makers trading in an incomplete market in which a Bernoulli-type jump could occur. Following a numerical...

This paper introduces a structural credit default model that is based on a hyper-exponential jump diffusion process for the value of the firm. For credit default swap prices and other quantities of interest, explicit expressions for the corresponding Laplace transforms are derived. As an...

Observing first that the daily option surface may be summarized by the level of the spot price and the four parameters of the Sato process based on the variance gamma process, a time series is constructed for this five dimensional set of factors driving the surface of S&P 500 index option...

We investigate the effect of including variance derivatives as calibration and hedging instruments for pricing and hedging exotic structures. This is studied empirically using market data for SPX and VIX derivatives applied in a stochastic volatility jump diffusion model