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We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182396
We propose a new predictor of real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA exploits the forward-looking information in option prices. It increases as risk averse investors enter the market,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010499597
We propose a new predictor of U.S. real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA is forward-looking and hence, it is expected to be related to future economic conditions. We document that U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011787902
In this paper we consider the optimal stopping problem for general dynamic monetary utility functionals. Sufficient conditions for the Bellman principle and the existence of optimal stopping times are provided. Particular attention is payed to representations which allow for a numerical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003905569
uncertainty. We construct a notion of a modeluncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases …-Requejo (2000) to compute lower and upper gooddeal bounds in the presence of model uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology using … some numerical examples. -- asset pricing theory ; good-deal bounds ; Knightian uncertainty ; model uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009679505
We investigate the effect of including variance derivatives as calibration and hedging instruments for pricing and hedging exotic structures. This is studied empirically using market data for SPX and VIX derivatives applied in a stochastic volatility jump diffusion model
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113731
In this paper we develop an approach to valuation of a multiple names security portfolio. The goal of the paper to present pricing and calculation of the risk characteristics of the corporate debt based on randomization of the historical data of a portfolio assets. Our approach close but it does...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119585
I empirically investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty is a priced risk factor in the cross-section of equity and … macroeconomic uncertainty factor is the return on a long/short portfolio of equity options, built on the basis of how implied … volatilities change around scheduled macroeconomic announcements. I find that macroeconomic uncertainty is priced in the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097881
We present a new option-pricing model, which explicitly captures the difference in the persistence of volatility under historical and risk-neutral probabilities. The model also allows to capture the empirical properties of pricing kernels, such as time-variation and the typical S-shape. We apply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014461
The role of market jump risk premium implicit in individual equity options has not been examined to date. This paper develops a new factor model for equity returns and option pricing that takes into account the market's diffusive and jump risks. We estimate the model on a large cross section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152217