Betting quotes provide valuable information on market-implied probabilities for outcomes of events like elections or referendums, which may have an impact on exchange rates. We generate exchange rate forecasts around such events based on a model that combines risk-neutral event probabilities...

Since its announcement made on Sept. 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level. We use a compound option pricing approach to...

We combine risk-neutral densities from equity index options with realized index returns to estimate the market's risk aversion. Starting from a power utility framework with constant risk aversion, we extend it by more flexible stochastic discount factors. We allow for time-varying risk aversion...