We examine the impact on an R&D valuation and its investment timing of abrupt events, options facing paradise (blockbusters) and purgatory (catastrophes). We show that the presence of a special case of Lévy jumps can model positive and negative effects in the investment opportunity even when...

Pushing models to extremes can expose output biases that stem from underlying assumptions. In the case of industry standard option valuation models, long term, high volatility securities provide a stress test vehicle. For instance, in evaluating a stock with 60% volatility, industry standard...

R&D is often a highly uncertain venture where experiments achieve successful outcomes on an extraordinarily rare basis. Just one successful product could change the future of a company; the discovery stage can often be an invaluable or disastrous experience. We develop a real R&D option model...

In this paper a joint capital asset pricing model and option pricing model is considered and applied to the derivation of an equity's value and its systematic risk. We first analyze the propreties of the two models and present some newly found properties of the option pricing model. We then...

Financial statements and an accompanying NPV calculation are embedded into a binomial tree. This generalization of traditional static NPV analysis allows the financial statements to both evolve through time and, at any given time, to vary with states of the world (similar to a Monte Carlo...

Governments and corporations frequently auction assets with embedded real options using both cash and contingent bids. I characterize equilibrium bidding and option exercise strategies, and find that the moral hazard associated with uncontractible investment timing inefficiently and...

This paper addresses the classical real options problem taking debt renegotiation into account. A critical feature is that equityholders can freely initiate debt renegotiation at most once after debt issuance. We provide explicit solutions of the pricing and timing of the option to start a...

This paper presents a simple framework for the analysis, valuation and simulation of several real options in the presence of shadow costs of incomplete information. Information costs can be viewed as sunk costs in the spirit of Merton's (1987) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete...

This paper describes a real options valuation method for situations where the underlying asset may have negative values and the underlying project present value distribution is something of the shape between normal and lognormal distribution causing skewness to the rate of return distribution....

This paper presents a practical volatility estimation method for cash flow simulation based real option valuation with changing volatility. During cash flow simulation, present value of the future cash flows and their corresponding cash flow state variable values are recorded for all time...