This paper presents an option positioning that allows us to infer forward variances from option portfolios. The forward variances we construct from equity index options help to predict (i) growth in measures of real economic activity, (ii) Treasury bill returns, (iii) stock market returns, and...

When the pricing kernel is U-shaped, then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold, determined by the slope of the U-shaped kernel in its increasing region, and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing...

When the pricing kernel is U-shaped, then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold, determined by the slope of the U-shaped kernel in its increasing region, and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing...

We derive risk-neutral option price formulas for plain-vanilla temperature futures derivatives on the basis of several multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck temperature models which allow for seasonality in the mean level and volatility. Our main innovation consists in an incorporation of omnipresent...

In this article, we study the algorithmic calculation of present values greeks for callable exotic instruments. The speed of greeks evaluations becomes important with recent initial margin rules, including the ISDA standard model SIMM, requiring sensitivity calculations for non-cleared deals...

Computing Standardized Initial Margin Model Margin Valuation Adjustment (SIMM-MVA) requires the simulation of future sensitivities, but these are expensive to compute for callable products. This paper introduces a method which avoids nested calls to the pricing function, similar to the use of...

We generalize the algorithmic differentiation method proposed by Antonov (2016) from price Greeks to XVA Greeks. This method, named Backward Differentiation (BD), was developed in the context of computing price or PV Greeks for individual callable exotic trades.We start by treating cases where...

A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the stock price evolution is described by a homogeneous Markov chain. In the focus of attention is the expected value of the guaranteed profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the stock price are bounded....

A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the relative jumps of the risky security price are independent non-identically distributed random variables. In the focus of attention is the expected non-risky profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the...

Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs,...