The Treasury has been testing the assumptions on the potential growth rate of the New Zealand economy. In this paper, we estimate a small macro model using Bayesian techniques, which allows us to assess the level of uncertainty of the estimates of the output gap. The model is based on the work...

I investigate the causes of the high inflation Argentina experienced from 2007 to 2015. To do so, I estimate the potential output and the output gap using the Blanchard-Quah decomposition for this country and compare it to the estima- tions I obtained for other economies in the region were...

The output gap (measuring the deviation of output from its potential) is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a measure of economic fluctuations. However, its definition...

This article contributes to understanding the performance of various unobserved components (UC) models in fitting Barbados’ real GDP. Relying on recent UC models techniques, it finds support for the UC model that captures correlated disturbances, but not for the model that does not. The best...

I investigate the causes of the high inflation Argentina experienced from 2007 to 2015. To do so, I estimate the potential output and the output gap using the Blanchard-Quah decomposition for this country and compare it to the estima- tions I obtained for other economies in the region were...

Output gap is defined as the difference between the potential output and actual output. There are several approaches used in the literature to estimate output gap. With this study it is aimed to obtain alternative output gap estimations for Turkish Economy, considering the constraints of...

This study estimates the output gaps for Pakistan, using both the statistical and the structural methods and comparing their results. Though they show some degree of association, the measures reveal inherent differences in the measures of output gap. Based on the annual data of GDP (1951-2007)...

This paper examines empirically the Phillips curve relationship for the Chinese economy. We use quarterly data that go back to 1978 and employ a multivariate rather than univariate method in the construction of gap measures for inflation, money and output jointly with reliable error bands. Our...

This paper re-examines the VAR analysis of the price puzzle with regard to the issues of measurement, identification and misspecification. In an empirical analysis conducted for the US economy, we consider alternative measures of economic activity and inflation, alternative assumptions to...

We estimate an output gap indicator for Turkey without resorting to any kind of a filtering procedure. Our approach stands on a two-step procedure : First, we pick such variables that are directly informative about the phase of the business cycle, where the decision of choice depends on their...