Pay-as-you-go pension programs can help to share risk amongst generations. While a wage-indexed pension program is best suited to share labor income risk, I show that the combination of stochastic labor income and stochastic population growth may reduce the possibilities for intergenerational...

The paper develops an overlapping generations model with probabilistic aging of households. We define age as a set of personal attributes such as earnings potential, health and tastes that are characteristic of a person's position in the life-cycle. In assuming a limited number of different...

We model the optimal reaction of a public PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex-ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules that mimic the pension systems observed in the real world. The...

Despite similar levels of per capita income, education, and technology the development of labour shares in OECD countries has displayed different patterns since 1960. The paper examines the role of demography in this regard. Employing an overlapping generations model we first examine the...

We introduce a continuous time overlapping generations demographic model, in which a social planner seeks to generate an optimal policy for influencing the demographic change of the underlying population in a neoclassical growth model. The model has the notable feature that the underlying state...

In this paper we consider the implications of relative consumption externalities in the Blanchard-Yaari overlapping generations framework. Unlike most of the macroeconomic literature that studies this question, the differences between agents, and, thus, in their relative position, persist in...

This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital...

Wie für die meisten industrialisierten Länder stellt der demografische Wandel in den kommenden Dekaden auch für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft eine bedeutende Herausforderung dar. Angesichts der seit den 1970er Jahren geringen Fertilitätsrate und der zunehmenden Lebenserwartung wird sich der...

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the Diamond (1965) OLG model, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of...

Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...