All countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades....

All practical evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and that has been taken into account in some studies by using stochastic population projections jointly with...

We study the effects of demographic shocks and changes in the pension system on the macroeconomic performance of an advanced small open economy. An overlapping-generations model is constructed which includes a realistic description of the mortality process. Individual agents choose their optimal...

We examine the dynamic interaction of the population age structure, economic dependency, and fertility, paying particular attention to the role of intergenerational transfers. In the short run, a reduction in fertility produces a “demographic dividend” that allows for higher consumption. In...

This paper contributes to the already vast literature on demography-induced international capital flows by examining the role of labor market imperfections and institutions. We setup a two-country overlapping generations model with search unemployment, which we calibrate on EU15 and US data....

How do population ageing shocks affect the long-run macroeconomic performance of an economy? To answer this question we build a general equilibrium overlapping generations model of a closed economy featuring endogenous factor prices. Finitely-lived individuals are endowed with perfect foresight...

A dynamic stochastic unified growth model is estimated from English economy data for almost a millennium. At the core of the (seven) overlapping generations, rational expectations structure is household choice about target number and quality of children. The trends of births, deaths, population...

Recent reforms that aim at reducing the upcoming burdens of population ageing might seriously harm low income individuals. An increase in old-age poverty and disability will be the result. Under this prospect, the present paper quantitatively characterizes the optimal progressivity of unfunded...

The Croatian system of old-age provision comprises a traditional public pay-as-you-go scheme and a mandatory funded scheme ("second pillar") that will provide increasing amounts of supplementary pensions to those entering retirement in the future. Due to the continuing economic crisis, the...