The reason why both earnings growth and inflation matter for the state pension is the pensions 'triple lock'. In place since 2011 (except for a one-year temporary suspension in 2022), under the triple lock the state pension rises in line with the highest of CPI inflation, average earnings growth...

Studying the age-dimension of the probability distribution of pensions while assuming steadily rising real wages and time-invariant benefit-rules, two factors play important roles: (i) the weight of the wages in indexation of benefits in progress; (ii) the longevity gap. Factor (i) acts against...