Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate the validity of stated risks elicited via the Exchangeability Method (EM) using an evaluation method based on de Finetti’s notion of coherence, under which probability estimates are valid if and only if they obey all axioms of probability theory....

Subjective risks of having contaminated apples elicited via the Exchangeability Method (EM) are examined in this study. In particular, as the experimental design allows us to investigate the validity of elicited risk measures, we examine the magnitude of differences between valid and invalid...

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether incentive compatibility affects subjective probabilities elicited via the exchangeability method (EM), an elicitation technique consisting of several chained questions. We hypothesize that subjects who are aware of the chaining strategically...