Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential)...

Estimating linear rational expectations models requires replacing the expectations of future, endogenous variables either with forecasts from a fully solved model, or with the instrumented actual values, or with forecast survey data. Extending the methods of McCallum (1976) and Gottfries and...

The all-gap Phillips curve (PC) explains inflation by expected inflation and an activity variable such as output or the unemployment rate, but with both inflation and the activity variable measured relative to their stochastic trends and thus as gaps. We study this relationship with minimal...