Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far beyond unity, whatever measure of expected … inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one … estimates the unemployment rate that is compatible with a tolerable inflation rate of say 2 percent following roughly the …

15 years. Controlling for the most important other factors influencing the inflation rate, we estimate cointegrations and …

also provide evidence that the impact of the output gap on inflation has increased in recent years. Overall, diminished …This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus …

Inflation persistence has been put forward as one of the potential reasons of divergence among euro area members. It … NMS went through, are applied. We emphasize that a time-varying mean models suggest similar or lower inflation persistence … due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS. Structural persistence measures show that backward …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean, for example caused by supply shocks and the … dynamic inflation terms of the Phillips curve. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean and obtain meaningful and … from more traditional approaches, most recently undertaken by Cogley and Sbordone (2008). -- Phillips curve ; inflation …

This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European … countries,in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high … inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the US and euro-area. In most central and …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …