-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the … Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission … of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our …

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates … inflation volatility. By pooling insights from diverse modeling frameworks, this study provides a robust and effective strategy … for improving inflation forecasts across different horizons. …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates … inflation volatility. By pooling insights from diverse modeling frameworks, this study provides a robust and effective strategy … for improving inflation forecasts across different horizons. …

and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy institutions, they find that real …

and a smooth estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap …

This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States … historical data will overstate the responsiveness of inflation to present-day economic conditions. I modify the traditional … behavior of inflation without relying on anchored expectations. Specifically, I explore reasons why the slope might vary over …