the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. … MDS approach. In a forecasting exercise the MDS model compares favorably to the Bernoulli model for one quarter and one …

inflation more broadly. Estimation and simulation results indicate that wage growth was strongly affected early in the pandemic …We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the … studies of pandemic-era inflation have confirmed that shocks to energy prices were important, but have not included imported …

inflation more broadly. Estimation and simulation results indicate that wage growth was strongly affected early in the pandemic …We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the … studies of pandemic-era inflation have confirmed that shocks to energy prices were important, but have not included imported …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial … pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic … slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse open …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …