In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation …, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline … annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly inflation will have an effect on the headline figure equal to 10% of the …

reduced-form Phillips curve - the positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. In this paper, I show hat it is the 4 … price reset hazard function can generate simulated data that are consistent with inflation gap persistence found in US CPI … data. I conclude that a non-constant price reset hazard plays a crucial role for generating realistic inflation dynamics …

cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation … dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more flexible, leading output and inflation to be more volatile, and bonds … to become more risky. The model matches well the relation between the level of inflation and a number of salient macro …