aggregate inflation and the higher-order moments of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical findings confirm … explanatory variable for the inflation rate. Further, the skewness measure also helps to explain shifts in the Phillips curve …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased … sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional … inflation, which was unaccounted for in forecasting models. We probe this explanation in the context of a simple backward …

Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict … the mean of future inflation, and the overwhelming evidence suggests that the macroeconomic indicators provide little or … no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …

price indices respond to exchange rate movements and/or foreign inflation. The impact of exchange rate is most substantial …In the paper we have investigated to what extent the behaviour of CPI inflation depends on changes in domestic economic … price indices at the COICOP 4-digit level. We specified a small open economy Phillips curve for individual price indices …

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased … sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional … inflation, which was unaccounted for in forecasting models. We probe this explanation in the context of a simple backward …