aggregate inflation and the higher-order moments of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical findings confirm … explanatory variable for the inflation rate. Further, the skewness measure also helps to explain shifts in the Phillips curve …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict … the mean of future inflation, and the overwhelming evidence suggests that the macroeconomic indicators provide little or … no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard bench marks in forecasting U.S. inflation … once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its … predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …