The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model and a BVARX model currently in use at the Bank of Italy. The performance is compared with that of simple univariate models and with the Eurosystem projections; the same real time...

One of the key questions about the current economic recovery in the euro area is why the decline in unemployment recorded since the second half of 2013 has been accompanied by subdued growth in nominal wages. In this paper we adopt a Phillips curve framework to assess whether alternative...