The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …

This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and … uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role … does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging …

increase according to trends in productivity and the target inflation rate of the central bank. Wage developments without …

In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation …, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline … annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly inflation will have an effect on the headline figure equal to 10% of the …

Consumer Price Index. We find that online price indices anticipate changes in official inflation trends more than one month in … only predict the contemporaneous inflation rate. Our baseline specification also outperforms statistical benchmark … States. Similarly, our quarterly forecast for the US inflation rate consistently outperforms the Survey of Professional …