For Germany and Switzerland, unlike for the US, data from periodic surveys of producing firms exist. These surveys cover questions regarding price setting and output decisions that are relevant for the study of inflation dynamics. The New Keynesian Phillips curve, in particular, holds that...

We analyze the Phillips curve relationship in the euro area and the U.S. using monthly survey data on expected inflation. The dataset enables us to estimate models of the Phillips curve without assuming rational expectation formation. We find evidence for a Phillips curve relationship consistent...

We examine Lars E O Svensson's prominent critique of the monetary policy of the Sveriges Riksbank (the Swedish central bank) from 1995-2012. Our main objection concerns Svensson's conclusion that the original pre-Friedman/Phelps version of the Phillips curve based on constant inflation...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...

This paper shows that a simple form of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve can explain why, following the Great Recession, inflation did not decrease as much as predicted by linear Phillips curves, a phenomenon known as the missing disinflation. We estimate a piecewise-linear specification and...

Inflation expectations are key to economic activity, and in the current economic climate of a heated labor market, they are central to the policy debate. At the same time, a growing literature on inattention suggests that individuals, and therefore individual behavior, may not be sensitive to...

We assess Lars E O Svensson's prominent critique of the Swedish Riksbank. We reject his two major claims: first that the Riksbank has anchored inflation expectations at the 2 percent inflation target, and second, that the original version of the Phillips curve, based constant inflation...

We study whether the trade-off between inflation and unemployment still exists in the euro area (EA). Using country-level data for member states of the EA, we estimate a refined specification of the Phillips curve in the spirit of Hazell et al. (2022) deploying a non-tradable price index to...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model ofMankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...