We construct and investigate a (1−α)-upper prediction bound for a future observation of a cyclic Poisson process using past data. A normal based confidence interval for our upper prediction bound is established. A comparison of the new prediction bound with a simpler nonparametric prediction...

Rare and randomly occurring events are important features of the economic world. In continuous time they can easily be modeled by Poisson processes. Analyzing optimal behavior in such a setup requires the appropriate version of the change of variables formula and the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman...

The present paper is concerned with the optimal control of stochastic differential equations, where uncertainty stems from one or more independent Poisson processes. Optimal behavior in such a setup (e.g., optimal consumption) is usually determined by employing the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman...

Rare and randomly occurring events are important features of the economic world. In continuous time they can easily be modeled by Poisson processes. Analyzing optimal behavior in such a setup requires the appropriate version of the change of variables formula and the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman...

From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model allows for a one time increase in the...

Pricing of cap insurance contracts is considered for political mortgage rates. A simple stochastic process for mortgage rates is proposed. The process is based on renewal processes for modelling the length of periods with downward and upward trend respectively. Prices are calculated by...

A Dynamic Hurdle Model for Zero-Inflated Count Data: With an Application to Health Care UtilizationExcess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process...

Precise identification of the time when a process has changed enables process engineers to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for a Poisson process in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to...

We study a game of strategic experimentation with two-armed bandits where the risky arm distributes lump-sum payoffs according to a Poisson process. Its intensity is either high or low, and unknown to the players. We consider Markov perfect equilibria with beliefs as the state variable and show...