Many sophisticated investors rely on scenario analysis to select a portfolio. These investors define prospective economic scenarios, assign probabilities to them, translate the scenarios into expected asset class returns, and select the portfolio with the highest expected return or expected...

Investors sometimes have strong convictions that a distinctive economic regime will prevail in the period ahead and therefore would like to form a portfolio that reflects the expected returns, standard deviations, and correlations of assets during such a regime. To do so, they typically isolate...

Safety-first portfolio optimization is concerned with maximizing the expected portfolio return subject to a safety-first constraint, which is defined as the probability of failing to achieve a specified target. Commonly the target is assumed to be fixed, which, however, leads to significant...