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Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets...
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Considering market-based inflation expectations, we show that investors’ forecasts are non-linear. We capture this non … and low concern about inflation. Using a complete cross-asset panel of equity sectors, bonds, and commodities, we perform … inflation is regime-dependent. We show that inflation-indexed government bonds and oil are the best way to get exposure to slow …
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What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …
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