Under the historical market view of binary bull and bear cycles, what is an ex ante optimal trading strategy? Similar to an original optimal stopping time model (Dai, et al 2010, 2011) to maximize long term investment returns, we introduce a market timing strategy based on the probability that...

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...

This paper examines a continuous-time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem for an ambiguity-averse investor with multiple priors when the expected return of a risky asset is unobservable and follows a hidden Markov chain. The investor's beliefs over investment opportunities are...