Although most empirical studies conclude that uncertainty delays firms' investments based on real options theory, empirical evidence regarding the impact of uncertainty on innovation is mixed. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate research and development (R&D)...

Currencies play an important role in facilitating trade and economic growth. Shifts in currency values may lead to economic dislocations hindering trade and growth. Most currencies are issued by government central banks. These central banks hold assets in the form of government debt and gold...

I find that the index of geopolitical risk (GPR) is significantly associated with both the extensive and intensive margins of stock market participation decisions. The GPR index subsumes the significance of economic policy uncertainty for stock market participation decisions and has long-lasting...

We consider individual’s portfolio selection problems. Introducing the concept of ambiguity, we show the existence of portfolio inertia under the assumptions that decision maker’s beliefs are captured by an inner measure, and that her preferences are represented by the Choquet integral with...

This interdisciplinary paper explains how mathematical techniques of stochastic optimal control can be applied to the recent subprime mortgage crisis. Why did the financial markets fail to anticipate the recent debt crisis, despite the large literature in mathematical finance concerning optimal...

Bei der Kreditrisikobewertung müssen die Parameter Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und korrelation geschätzt werden. Diese Schätzung erfolgt unter Unsicherheit. In der Literatur werden asymptotische Konfidenzregionen diskutiert, um diese Unsicherheit bei der simultanen Schätzung beider Parameter...

One of Keynes' core issues in his liquidity preference theory is how fundamental uncertainty affects the propensity to hold money as a liquid asset. The paper critically assesses various formal representations of fundamental uncertainty and provides an argument for a more boundedly rational...

One of Keynes’ core issues in his liquidity preference theory is how fundamental uncertainty affects the propensity to hold money as a liquid asset. The paper critically assesses various formal representations of fundamental uncertainty and provides an argument for a more bounded rational...

The use of probability of default estimates to assess the risks of a credit portfolio should not ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter can be quantified by confidence intervals. But assumptions about dependencies of these intervals are inconsistent with assumptions of conventional credit...