Aggregate demand by insiders predicts time-series variation in the value premium. Insider trading forecasts the value premium because insiders sell (buy) when markets - especially growth stocks - are overvalued (undervalued). This article suggests that investors can use signals from aggregate...

Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no evidence investors can, or have ever been able to, easily form portfolios containing negligible exposure to unsystematic returns. Because well-diversified portfolios are the bedrock upon which so much financial theory is built, investors' inability to...

Aggregate demand by insiders predicts time-series variation in the value premium — between 1978 and 2004, a one standard deviation increase in aggregate insider demand in the previous six months forecasts a 53 basis point decline (6.54% annualized) in the expected value premium in the month...

Consistent with the well-documented relation between political orientation and psychological traits, hedge funds' political orientations are related to their portfolio decisions. Relative to politically conservative hedge funds, politically liberal hedge funds exhibit a preference for smaller...