How does sovereign risk affect investors' behavior? We answer this question using a novel database that combines sovereign default probabilities for 27 developed and emerging markets with monthly data on the portfolios of individual bond mutual funds. We first show that changes in yields do not...

Quantitative investment strategies are often selected from a broad class of candidate models estimated and tested on historical data. Standard statistical technique to prevent model overfitting such as out-sample back-testing turns out to be unreliable in the situation when selection is based on...

Since private equity investments are not publicly traded, a key issue in measuring investment risks of institutional private equity investors arises from a careful measurement of investment returns in the first place. Prices of private equity investments are typically observed at low frequency...

U.S. equity mutual funds, on average, prefer realization of capital losses to capital gains. Nevertheless, a substantial fraction exhibits the disposition effect of realizing gains more readily than losses. My analysis suggests that learning effects have reduced the manifestation of the...

There are three fundamental ways of testing the validity of an investment algorithm against historical evidence: a) the walk-forward method; b) the resampling method; and c) the Monte Carlo method. By far the most common approach followed among academics and practitioners is the walk-forward...

Successful investment strategies are specific implementations of general theories. An investment strategy that lacks a theoretical justification is likely to be false. Hence, an asset manager should concentrate her efforts on developing a theory, rather than on back-testing potential trading...

When prices reflect all available information, they oscillate around an equilibrium level. This oscillation is the result of the temporary market impact caused by waves of buyers and sellers. This price behavior can be approximated through an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process.Market makers provide...

Investment managers require a consistent asset pricing model, asset allocation recommendations and risk-adjusted performance measures (or the “three facets of investing”) to be effective in managing portfolios. Incorporating three critical realities of investing into these models (i.e., that...

Convex optimization solutions tend to be unstable, to the point of entirely offsetting the benefits of optimization. For example, in the context of financial applications, it is known that portfolios optimized in-sample often underperform the naïve (equal weights) allocation out-of-sample. This...

In this paper, I investigate the asset allocation ability of mutual fund investors. Specifically, I examine differences among non-proprietary brokers, proprietary brokers and direct channels regarding their asset allocation ability. In aggregate, mutual fund investors do not seem to have...