In the course of eurozone exit, the underlying stocks of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) would be redenominated from euros into the new national currency. We exploit ADR investors' exposure to currency redenomination losses to derive a novel measure of eurozone exit risk. We find that while...

This work studies the information content of trades in the world's largest over-the-counter(OTC) market, the foreign exchange (FX) market. It analyses a novel, comprehensiveorder flow dataset, distinguishing amongst different groups of market participantsand covering a large cross-section of...

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...

We establish the out-of-sample predictability of monthly exchange rate changes via machine learning techniques based on 70 predictors capturing country characteristics, global variables, and their interactions. To guard against overfitting, we use the elastic net to estimate a high-dimensional...

We introduce a covariance and spread (i.e., exchange rate forward discount) adjusted carry factor that prices the cross-section of FX market returns, where many other single and multi-factor models fail. Both the covariance matrix of exchange rate growths and forward discounts contain important...

Often, investors fully hedge their portfolios for currency risk. This can lead to significant drag in performance for currencies with negative carry. However, not hedging the foreign currency exposure can lead to significant drawdowns, especially for conservative investments. In this paper, we...

Using a measure of global political risk, relative to the U.S., that captures unexpected political conditions, we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors. Our results are robust after controlling for...

We test the role of funding-constrained investors across developed financial markets. We compile direct measures of the severity of funding frictions, or illiquidity, from deviations of government bond yields from a fitted yield curve. Using these illiquidity measures, we first show that higher...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...

Past trends in fundamentals linked to economic activity and inflation predict currency returns. We find that a trading strategy that goes long currencies with strong economic momentum and short currencies with weak economic momentum exhibits an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.70 and yields a...