This paper applies specific quantitative methods to demonstrate a general theoretical model for measuring strategic performance. The theoretical concepts are universal and measurable for all types of strategic activity by applying the methodology through alternative quantitative analytical...

Assuming that probabilities (capacities) of events are random, this paper introduces a novel model of decision making under ambiguity, called Shadow probability theory, a generalization of the Choquet expected utility. In this model, probabilities of observable events in a subordinated...

We compare the equal-weight naive 1/N portfolio with mean-variance strategies from the perspective of mispricing (alpha) and provide three new findings. First, we analytically show that the 1/N rule approaches the ex ante mean-variance efficient portfolio in the absence of mispricing. With...

We derive sufficient conditions for non-emptyness of the efficient set for Stochastic Dominance Relations, commonly applied in Economics and Finance, over sets of distributions on the real line. We do so via the use of the concept of stochastic spanning and its characterization via a saddle type...

Various concepts appeared in the existing literature to evaluate the risk exposure of a financial or insurance firm/subsidiary/line of business due to the occurrence of some extreme scenarios. Many of those concepts, such as Marginal Expected Shortfall or Tail Conditional Expectation, are simply...

Under the historical market view of binary bull and bear cycles, what is an ex ante optimal trading strategy? Similar to an original optimal stopping time model (Dai, et al 2010, 2011) to maximize long term investment returns, we introduce a market timing strategy based on the probability that...

We examine the problem of decision making using a probabilistic model when there is material uncertainty concerning the accuracy of the model coupled with limited information about it. Such conditions could hold, for example, for the user of a complex commercial model of natural catastrophe...

Standard mean-variance analysis is based on the assumption of normal return distributions. However, a growing body of literature suggests that the market oscillates between two different regimes – one with low volatility and the other with high volatility. In such a case, even if the return...

We investigate what it means for one act to be more ambiguous than another. The question is evidently analogous to asking what makes one prospect riskier than another, but beliefs are neither objective nor representable by a unique probability. Our starting point is an abstract class of...