We derive sufficient conditions for non-emptyness of the efficient set for Stochastic Dominance Relations, commonly applied in Economics and Finance, over sets of distributions on the real line. We do so via the use of the concept of stochastic spanning and its characterization via a saddle type...

We compare the equal-weight naive 1/N portfolio with mean-variance strategies from the perspective of mispricing (alpha) and provide three new findings. First, we analytically show that the 1/N rule approaches the ex ante mean-variance efficient portfolio in the absence of mispricing. With...

We examine the problem of decision making using a probabilistic model when there is material uncertainty concerning the accuracy of the model coupled with limited information about it. Such conditions could hold, for example, for the user of a complex commercial model of natural catastrophe...

Banks must manage their trading books, not just value them. Pricing includes valuation adjustments collectively known as XVA (at least credit, funding, capital and tax), so management must also include XVA. In trading book management we focus on pricing, hedging, and allocation of prices or...

Standard mean-variance analysis is based on the assumption of normal return distributions. However, a growing body of literature suggests that the market oscillates between two different regimes – one with low volatility and the other with high volatility. In such a case, even if the return...

Assuming that probabilities (capacities) of events are random, this paper introduces a novel model of decision making under ambiguity, called Shadow probability theory, a generalization of the Choquet expected utility. In this model, probabilities of observable events in a subordinated...

Under the historical market view of binary bull and bear cycles, what is an ex ante optimal trading strategy? Similar to an original optimal stopping time model (Dai, et al 2010, 2011) to maximize long term investment returns, we introduce a market timing strategy based on the probability that...

The global minimum variance portfolio computed using the sample covariance matrix is known to be negatively affected by parameter uncertainty, an important component of model risk. Using a robust approach, we introduce a portfolio rule for investors who wish to invest in the global minimum...

Fuzzy sets theory is proposed as an alternative to the probabilistic approach for assessing portfolios of power plants, in order to capture the complex reality of decision-making processes. This paper presents different fuzzy portfolio selection models, where the rate of returns as well as the...