Long-term investors are often reluctant to invest in assets or strategies that can suffer from large drawdowns. A major challenge for such investors is to gain access to predictions of large drawdowns in order to precisely design strategies minimizing these drawdowns. In this paper, we describe...

Many recent papers have investigated the role played by volatility in determining the cross-section of currency returns. This paper employs two time-varying factor models: a threshold model and a Markov-switching model to price the excess returns from the currency carry trade. We show that the...