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We explore the performance of mixed-frequency predictive regressions for stock returns from the perspective of a Bayesian investor. We develop a constrained parameter learning approach for sequential estimation allowing for belief revisions. Empirically, we find that mixed-frequency models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348997
Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009658243
This paper compares multivariate and univariate GARCH models to forecast portfolio value-at-risk (VaR). We provide a comprehensive look at the problem by considering realistic models and diversified portfolios containing a large number of assets, using both simulated and real data. Moreover, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090616
Empirical risk minimization is a standard principle for choosing algorithms in learning theory. In this paper we study … covers different types of forecasting applications encountered in the literature. We are concerned with 1-step …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216191
Beyond their importance from the regulatory policy point of view, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) play an important role in risk management, portfolio allocation, capital level requirements, trading systems, and hedging strategies. Unfortunately, due to the curse of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242339
Forecasting stock market returns is one of the most effective tools for risk management and portfolio diversification …. There are several forecasting techniques in the literature for obtaining accurate forecasts for investment decision making …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268500
learning problem in finance: time series forecasting. The underlying idea is to use the attention mechanism and the seq2seq … series forecasting in finance. The first part of this article systematically reviews the Transformer model while highlighting … forecasting. In addition, our paper discusses the issues and considerations when using machine learning models in finance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255487
We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a … based on asset class, or into a single portfolio. We compare the impact of aggregation to that of choosing a model for the … that the degree of temporal aggregation is most important. Daily returns form the best basis for VaR forecasts. Modelling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503
We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a … based on asset class, or into a single portfolio. We compare the impact of aggregation to that of choosing a model for the … that the degree of temporal aggregation is most important. Daily returns form the best basis for VaR forecasts. Modelling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970357
. Two approaches based on the extreme value theory were compared: Block Maxima and the Peaks Over Threshold. Forecasts were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302139