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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782578
We explore the performance of mixed-frequency predictive regressions for stock returns from the perspective of a Bayesian investor. We develop a constrained parameter learning approach for sequential estimation allowing for belief revisions. Empirically, we find that mixed-frequency models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348997
estimates lead in turn to substantial gains for forecasting various risk measures at horizons ranging from a few days to a few …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128339
investment strategy including transaction costs. Another empirical example refers to forecasting US economic growth over the … business cycle. It suggests that time varying combination schemes may be very useful in business cycle analysis and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378346
investment strategy including transaction costs. Another empirical example refers to forecasting US economic growth over the … business cycle. It suggests that time varying combination schemes may be very useful in business cycle analysis and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152215
systematic risk; and (3) forecasting risk/return profiles of hedge fund investment strategies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073771
Black-Litterman forecasting model widely used by investment practitioners in various forms is revisited in the light cast by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940624
Robustness of credit portfolio models is of great interest for financial institutions and regulators, since misspecified models translate to insufficient capital buffers and a crisis-prone financial system. In this paper, we propose a method to enhance credit portfolio models based on the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863679
The intuitiveness and practicability of mean-variance portfolios largely depends on the accuracy of moment estimates, which are subject to large estimation errors and conditional on time. We propose a model accounting for factor dynamics in a Bayesian setting, in which the impact of estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905727
The purpose of this study is to incorporate some of the influential findings in the forecasting literature in an … on the output of the forecasting model. All aforementioned steps only use data up to the current time and before the … forecasting time. The results are compared to common benchmarks such as the buy-and-hold strategy and additional benchmarks that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868096