1 Introduction -- 2 Motivation -- Part I MEASURES -- 3 Basic Terms and Notation -- 4 Historical Value-at-Risk -- 5 Sensitivities -- 6 Stress Tests -- 7 Analytical Value-at-Risk -- 8 Expected Shortfall -- 9 Model Choices -- 10 A Monte Carlo Modi cation -- 11 Support Measures -- Part II OPERATIONS...

This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...

Quantitative investment strategies are often selected from a broad class of candidate models estimated and tested on historical data. Standard statistical technique to prevent model overfitting such as out-sample back-testing turns out to be unreliable in the situation when selection is based on...

Quantitative investment strategies are often selected from a broad class of candidate models estimated and tested on historical data. Standard statistical techniques to prevent model overfitting such as out-sample backtesting turn out to be unreliable in situations when the selection is based on...