This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond …-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside … conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that downside risk can explain a large proportion of the variation in yield spreads …

aggregate risk premia. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in normal times, is exposed to the risk of economic … depression, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, time …-varying risk of large economic disaster. This simple feature generates large, volatile and countercyclical credit spreads as well …

Credit spreads are large, volatile and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not … recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business … cycle model with a small, exogenously time-varying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and …

aggregate risk premia. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in normal times, is exposed to the risk of economic … depression, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, time …-varying risk of large economic disaster. This simple feature generates large, volatile and countercyclical credit spreads as well …