Procyclical assets tend to rise in value when the economy is expanding and fall with the advent of a recession. Countercyclical assets are instead negatively correlated with the state of the economy. Despite the use of optimization methods, hedging, and ad hoc rebalancing techniques most...

I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily due to autocorrelation in yield changes...

Economic assets can be classified into two broad categories: those earning an inherent return and those earning a fiat money return. This article shows that both are valued according to the same general principle based on GDP (a constant equal to expected long term real per capita GDP growth)...

Trading and investment strategies play an essential part in better understanding fixed income markets. Over-the-counter markets and thousands of different outstanding bonds increase the difficulties to identify adequate comparison methods. Market participants and their practices differ widely...

Classical quantitative finance models such as the Geometric Brownian Motion or its later extensions such as local or stochastic volatility models do not make sense when seen from a physics-based perspective, as they are all equivalent to a negative mass oscillator with a noise. This paper...

The performance of dynamic trading and investment strategies can be difficult to predict. Although not without its problems, analysis of the historical performance of a strategy can provide valuable insight into its general risk and return properties. Furthermore, historical analysis allows one...

We explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. We estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. We...

We present efficient partial differential equation (PDE) methods for continuous time mean-variance portfolio allocation problems when the underlying risky asset follows a jump-diffusion. The standard formulation of mean-variance optimal portfolio allocation problems, where the total wealth is...

A numerical technique based on the embedding technique proposed in [21, 33] for dynamic mean-variance (MV) optimization problems may yield spurious points, i.e. points which are not on the efficient frontier. In [27], it is shown that spurious points can be eliminated by examining the left upper...

We generalize the idea of semi-self-financing strategies, originally discussed in Ehrbar, Journal of Economic Theory (1990), and later formalized in em Cui et al, Mathematical Finance 22 (2012), for the pre-commitment mean-variance (MV) optimal portfolio allocation problem. The proposed...