This paper examines the role of earnings quality in the future performance of firms that marginally miss or beat analysts' forecasts. We focus primarily on two groups of firms: those that miss their forecast but appear not to have attempted to exceed it by managing earnings, and those that...

We examine the out-of-sample performance of 240 stock market anomalies enhanced by 49 machine learning algorithms and over 260 individually trained models across an international data sample of nearly 1.9 billion stock-month-anomaly observations from 1980 to 2019. We demonstrate significant...

The existing replication policies at top finance journals are far weaker than the policies at top economics journals. This paper explores both the costs and benefits of having a stronger replication policy in the context of my failed 2010 initiative to develop a unified policy across all top...

Among the ecosystem of decentralized financial services, yield farming is a complex investment strategy with hidden downside risks providing opportunities for passively earning income. We characterize the risk and return characteristics of yield farming and show that yield farms dynamically...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

The concept of bond duration was originally introduced by Macaulay (1938) and nowadays is well- established in the fixed-income literature. In this paper, I lift the same concepts from the fixed-income asset class and apply them to equities. I derive three candidate models for estimating the...

This study documents the prominent role of idiosyncratic risk in impeding arbitrage activities with regard to a new value-to-price anomaly. Adopting the theoretical foundation and empirical specification of Hwang and Sohn's (2010) real-option-based valuation model, we measure the intrinsic value...

This paper shows that the new financial regulation introduced in 2007 in the Netherlands, the so-called nieuw Financieel Toetsings Kader (nFTK), has several basic flaws. The nFTK evaluation cannot be trusted. The results are misleading and must not be used for policy decisions. 'Funding...

We implement a recursive out-of-sample method to examine anomalies-based ex-ante predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We obtain a series of simulated out-of-sample returns, consistent with investors using only prior information when choosing predictor variables. We find that, by...

While most accounting information is idiosyncratic in nature, economy-wide factors such as accounting standards affect the quality of idiosyncratic accounting information of many firms simultaneously. We study idiosyncratic and systematic features of accounting information by embedding a...